The Economy Has Not Yet Improved Significantly, And The Rate Of Capital Activation Is High.

The possible reason for the high rate of capital activation is that the enterprises get a lot of money, but they dare not invest blindly or expand their production. They dare not save as a regular fear of missing investment opportunities, thus forming a special case of capital accumulation in demand deposits.

From the data point of view, the increase in the level of capital activation has been going on for four or five months, but the economy has not improved significantly. This time lag has surpassed the general level in history, and it seems that money is lying on demand.

But logically speaking, enterprises have access to capital.

If the cost is low, it must be higher than the current deposit, and it is irrational for the enterprise to deposit back to the bank at a current time after borrowing money.

Moreover, it is even more difficult to understand that demand deposits that are kept at almost zero earnings, rather than time deposits with higher returns.

It is worth noting that at present, there is no clear signal to stabilize the macro-economy.

In February 15th, China's customs statistics released in January showed that in dollar terms, exports fell by 11.2% compared with the same period last year, while imports fell by 18.8% year-on-year.

Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's asset management department, told reporters that whether the credit boom in January represented the turning point of the economy, and needed more evidence to support it.

It may not be too ugly.

Whether the high credit growth can continue depends on whether the demand of the real economy and whether the government can stimulate the economy can continue. Otherwise, there may be a sharp contraction in financial data.

According to media reports, in the middle of January, the central bank's speech on the Forum on liquidity management before and after the Spring Festival also talked about the problem of excessive speed in the first half of the month and the high scale at the beginning of the year.

Previously,

Sheng Songcheng, director of the survey and Statistics Division, pointed out that the growth of money supply in the late 12 months of last year indicated that the rapid growth of money supply showed that the overall liquidity of the market was generally ample, and the policy of national steady growth was intensified, and the economic activity was improved in M1. M2

This momentum extended to 2016. By the end of 1 this year, the M2 balance reached 141 trillion and 630 billion yuan, up 14% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.7 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the end of last year and the same period last year. The balance of M1 reached 41 trillion and 270 billion yuan, up 18.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3.4 and 8.1 percentage points higher than that of the end of last year and the same period last year. The M0 balance reached 7 trillion and 250 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year.

In this regard, China Minsheng Bank chief researcher Wen Bin told the "daily economic news" reporter, January financial data significantly exceeded market expectations, also reflects the financial support for the real economy.

M2 grew by 14% over the past 1 years, reaching a new high of 1 and a half years, mainly due to a significant increase in derivative deposits due to excessive credit.

The Bank Financial Research Center pointed out that the loan demand stimulated by the steady growth policy gradually fell and the banks were generally inclined to the seasonally influential factors at the beginning of the year. Loans increased substantially at the beginning of the year, and the M1 and M2's "reverse scissors gap" pattern expanded further.

Meanwhile, the low growth rate of M1 in the first half of last year further pushed up the M1 growth rate in January.

At present, the growth rate of M1 and M2 in February may expand further.